Waiver Wire Finds

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  • Watch for Breakout Performances
    • Check box scores, Watch highlights
    • Beware of one week Wunderkinds
      • Verify point surge wasn’t due to matchups or injuries
  • Claim them early
  • Try retaining your Top 10 picks for the first few weeks
    • Be patient
  • Research throughly
    • Verify it’s not due to injury or match-up
    • One strong game by a RB is usually worthy of a pickup
    • WRs are known to have one week of relevance

Five Breakout Tight Ends – 2014

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There’s just enough tight ends to go around in a 10 team league but if some one doubles up early, it could leave owners struggling for points at the tight end position. Avoid reaching, don’t lose out on a quality RB or WR to reach on a tight end. There are a lot of “experts” that have Antonio Gates in the 14th – 16th range, they are overvaluing Ladarius Green. Gates finished #3 in TE’s last year, we aren’t expecting such a free fall for Gates. If you miss out on a top-10 TE there are Bubbling under the Top 10 are Gates, Martellus Bennett and Charles Clay.

Jordan Reed, Was (ADP 12th Round)

  • Growing rapport with RG3
  • Great value as a 12th round pick
  • Improved receiving corp should open up middle
  • On pace for nearly 1,000 yard season before concussion ended his season
  • Jay Gruden’s offensive game plan will have a positive impact on TEs

Dennis Pitta, Bal(ADP 10th Round)

  • Missed first 12 games due to hip injury
  • Had 33 targets and 20 receptions in his 4 games
  • Owen Daniels is not a threat
  • Only mid-field threat on squad
  • Expected to match 2012 stats

Kyle Rudolph, Min (ADP 12th Round)

  • 2013: on target for 60 receptions, 600+ yds & 6 TDs before injury, expecting increased numbers due to Norv Turner’s arrival in Minnesota
  • Expect him to surpass Olsen, Pitta & Reed
  • Pro Bowler in 2012
  • His height, 6’6″, will make in a popular target in the red zone

Tyler Eifert, Cin (ADP Free Agent)

  • Expectation: Top 15 TE
  • While this is a huge improvement from 2013, he’s still not worthy of a draft pick
  • Monitor his progress during the season, could be nice injury/bye week replacement
  • After last season’s performance by Jermaine Gresham has opened the door for Eifert

Richard Rodgers, GP (ADP Free Agent)

  • Starting TE battle is wide open
  • One of the stars of OTAs
  • His size and athletic ability showed up during OTAs, Brandon Bostic showed up to OTAs overweight
  • Blocking ability must be verified during preseason
  • Andrew Quarless hasn’t practice this year

Quarterbacks – Value Picks (2014)

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Here’s a list of Quarterbacks that are well worth the current ADP positions. If you don’t draft a QB early, first 3 rounds, the first three on this list are worthy of a QB1 position. The remaining two have the potential to be QB1’s, especially, with good defensive match-ups.
Tom Brady, NE (ADP 7th Round)

  • His drop in ADP is mostly due to the first half of last season. He mostly had 3 rookies and no Gronkowski.
  • Receiving corp is improved
  • He’s undervalued but he’s still Tom Brady
  • Fast paced offense will give him more production
  • Expectations: #7 QB (+/-2)

Jay Cutler, SD (ADP 14th Round)

  • He has the weapons around him to be a top 10 QB
  • Marc Trestman creates outstanding QBs
  • Even with Forte, they should be a pass happy offense
  • Only big negative is his durability. 2009 was last full 16 game season for Cutler
  • Expectations: #9 QB (+/-2)

Philip Rivers, SD (ADP 11th Round)

  • With a PR 6 last year, Rivers shouldn’t be considered a breakout star but he’s tracking as the #14 QB in ADP reports
  • Last year, the arrival of Danny Woodhead and rookie Keenan Allen vastly improved their receiving corp
  • Whether the TE position is filled by Antonio Gates or Ladarius Green, they’ll be in good hands
  • Rivers still takes too many hits but he’s proven to be very durable
  • Expectations: #10 QB (+/-2)

Andy Dalton, Cin (ADP 11th Round)

  • Very talented at WR & TE positions, plus Giovani Bernard out of the backfield
  • New OC Hue Jackson will scale back their passing game
    • Finished #5 QB in 2013
    • Dalton may not reach 2013 fantasy stats but should be a solid QB2
  • Expectations: #11 QB (+/-2)

Ryan Tannehill, Mia (ADP 14th Round)

  • OL has improved with addition of Brandon Albert and 1st round pick RT
  • Receivers are now a position of strength for the Dolphins
    • 2nd Round Pick Jarvis Landry
    • Emergence of TE Charles Clay
    • Return of Brandon Gibson from injury
    • Expanded role for Mike Wallace
  • Quality receivers, Moreno & Miller, out of the backfield
  • Expectations: #15 QB (+/-3)

Five WRs To Draft Ahead of Their ADP – 2014

Cordarrelle Patterson, Min (ADP 8th Round)

Terrance Williams, Dal (ADP 11th Round)

  • 736 yds, 5 TDs
  • Should see a lot of single coverage with Dez Bryant on the opposite side
  • Offense can support 2 WRs
  • Big play receiver with 16.7 ypc in his rookie season

Brandon Cooks, NO (ADP 15th Rount)

  • 661 yds, 5 TDs
  • 1st Round pick, 20th overall
  • Should fill the Lance Moore & Darren Sproles void
  • Better suited for WR2 and rookie Cooks taking over the vertical routes

Rueben Randle, NYG (ADP 14th Rount)

  • 611 yds, 6 TDs

Golden Tate, Det (ADP 10th Rount)

Five Breakout Wide Receivers – 2014

Corrderrelle Patterson, Min (ADP 7th Round)

  • ADP could climb rapidly
  • Do not overvalue

Terrence Williams, Dal (ADP 10th Round)

  • Top 20 QB

Kenny Stills, NO (ADP 15th Round)

  • Top 20 QB

Justin Hunter, Ten (ADP 14th Round)

  • Judgement is still out on their starting QB

Rueben Randle, NYG (ADP 15th Round)

  • If Randle beats out Beckham, this will be a real steal

Running Back Starters 2014

Running Backs Based on 2013 Point Rsnkings

Team Projected Starter Rank 2013 Pts 2013 FP/Gm 2013 Pts (PPR) 2013 FP/Gm (PPR)
Kansas City Chiefs Jamaal Charles 1 295 19.7 359 23.9
Philadelphia Eagles LeSean McCoy 2 262 16.4 304 19.0
Chicago Bears Matt Forte 3 251 15.7 321 20.1
Seattle Seahawks Marshawn Lynch 4 224 14.0 257 16.1
Miami Dolphins Knowshon Moreno 5 220 13.8 251 15.7
Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy 6 198 13.2 240 16.0
Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson 7 194 13.9 234 16.7
New York Jets Chris Johnson 8 189 11.8 227 14.2
Dallas Cowboys DeMarco Murray 9 189 13.5 245 17.5
San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews 11 175 10.9 194 12.1
Detroit Lions Reggie Bush 12 174 12.4 224 16.0
San Francisco 49ers Frank Gore 13 166 10.4 181 11.3
Washington Redskins Alfred Morris 14 160 10.0 168 10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers Le’Veon Bell 15 160 12.3 212 16.3
St. Louis Rams Zac Stacy 17 150 11.5 171 13.2
Cincinnati Bengals Giovani Bernard 18 149 9.3 201 12.6
Oakland Raiders Maurice Jones-Drew 20 132 8.8 168 11.2
Carolina Panthers DeAngelo Williams 21 128 8.5 151 10.1
New York Giants Rashad Jennings 22 127 7.9 158 9.9
New Orleans Saints Pierre Thomas 23 118 7.4 208 13.0
Arizona Cardinals Andre Ellington 24 115 7.7 163 10.9
Buffalo Bills C.J. Spiller 28 109 7.3 146 9.7
Baltimore Ravens Ray Rice 31 107 7.1 157 10.5
Atlanta Falcons Steven Jackson 32 105 8.8 132 11.0
Cleveland Browns Ben Tate 33 100 7.1 137 9.8
Indianapolis Colts Trent Richardson 34 99 6.2 142 8.9
Houston Texans Arian Foster 41 81 11.6 118 16.9
Denver Broncos Montee Ball 42 80 5.3 134 8.9
New England Patriots Shane Vereen 43 80 10.0 152 19.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Doug Martin 57 51 8.5 94 15.7
Jacksonville Jaguars Toby Gerhart 66 38 2.4 61 3.8
Tennessee Titans Bishop Sankey #N/A 0 0.0 0 0.0

Running Backs Based on 2013 Point Average (per games played)

Team Projected Starter Rank 2013 Pts 2013 FP/Gm 2013 Pts (PPR) 2013 FP/Gm (PPR)
Kansas City Chiefs Jamaal Charles 1 295 19.7 359 23.9
Philadelphia Eagles LeSean McCoy 2 262 16.4 304 19.0
Chicago Bears Matt Forte 3 251 15.7 321 20.1
Seattle Seahawks Marshawn Lynch 4 224 14.0 257 16.1
Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson 7 194 13.9 234 16.7
Miami Dolphins Knowshon Moreno 5 220 13.8 251 15.7
Dallas Cowboys DeMarco Murray 9 189 13.5 245 17.5
Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy 6 198 13.2 240 16.0
Detroit Lions Reggie Bush 12 174 12.4 224 16.0
Pittsburgh Steelers Le’Veon Bell 15 160 12.3 212 16.3
New York Jets Chris Johnson 8 189 11.8 227 14.2
Houston Texans Arian Foster 41 81 11.6 118 16.9
St. Louis Rams Zac Stacy 17 150 11.5 171 13.2
San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews 11 175 10.9 194 12.1
San Francisco 49ers Frank Gore 13 166 10.4 181 11.3
Washington Redskins Alfred Morris 14 160 10.0 168 10.5
New England Patriots Shane Vereen 43 80 10.0 152 19.0
Cincinnati Bengals Giovani Bernard 18 149 9.3 201 12.6
Oakland Raiders Maurice Jones-Drew 20 132 8.8 168 11.2
Atlanta Falcons Steven Jackson 32 105 8.8 132 11.0
Carolina Panthers DeAngelo Williams 21 128 8.5 151 10.1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Doug Martin 57 51 8.5 94 15.7
New York Giants Rashad Jennings 22 127 7.9 158 9.9
Arizona Cardinals Andre Ellington 24 115 7.7 163 10.9
New Orleans Saints Pierre Thomas 23 118 7.4 208 13.0
Buffalo Bills C.J. Spiller 28 109 7.3 146 9.7
Cleveland Browns Ben Tate 33 100 7.1 137 9.8
Baltimore Ravens Ray Rice 31 107 7.1 157 10.5
Indianapolis Colts Trent Richardson 34 99 6.2 142 8.9
Denver Broncos Montee Ball 42 80 5.3 134 8.9
Jacksonville Jaguars Toby Gerhart 66 38 2.4 61 3.8
Tennessee Titans Bishop Sankey #N/A 0 0.0 0 0.0

Five Breakout Running Backs – 2014

We’ve identified 5 running backs with opportunities to have big years this season. Ryan Mathews shouldn’t be on this list after finally producing a solid fantasy season last year. However, his expectations don’t match is production from last year. The remaining four are ready to be the featured back starting in Week 1.

Ben Tate

  • First opportunity to be featured back
  • Proved he could be a #1 back while in Houston
  • Strong offensive line
  • Monitor Terrance West’s development, potential

Andre Ellington

  • 5.5 yards per carry last season
  • Quality receiver out of the backfield
  • Very little competition, Jonathan Dwyer signed from Pittsburgh
  • Improving offensive line
  • Must improve blocking

Montee Ball

  • Last year’s #1 back, Knowshon Moreno, finished fifth among running backs
  • Ball is more talented than Moreno but needs to improve blocking
  • Underrated receiver
  • Limited competition
  • Strong offensive line

Bishop Sankey

  • First RB taken in 2014 NFL Draft
  • Competition has little upside, Shonn Greene, Jackie Battle (?)
  • Good receiver
  • Coaching staff must get him to run more North/South than in college
  • Monitor ADPs and draft accordingly – Do Not Reach
  • Weak competition makes him an easy low-RB2 or High-Flex.

Ryan Mathews

  • Quietly had a very good fantasy season last year, 11th among RB
  • Danny Woodhead will take some points away
    • Mathews is still the #1 feature back
  • Added 7lbs of muscle in offseason.
  • Chargers added Donald Brown in offseason but don’t see him pushing for starting job
  • Current average draft position: Early 5th Round (That’s a steal)

No real threat to unseat him as starter

Give Yourself A Better Fantasy Experience

We’re going to give you less stress during your fantasy season.

Draft After The 3rd Preseason Game

  • Try avoiding leagues that drafts prior to Week #3 of the preseason
    • Less demoted players drafted
    • Less drafted players that are on IR before the season starts
    • You’ll have a better fantasy experience if All or Most of the owners stick around until Week #16

Week #17 is NOT a Playoff Week

  • Don’t Participate in Leagues that Use Week #17 as a Playoff Week
  • Yes, this includes ESPN.com pickup league
  • A playoff lineup should not consist of Week 17 waiver wire pickups

No Excessive IDP’s

  • Choose a league that keeps IDP’s to only one
  • Two is acceptable, if you are playing with experienced owners (use caution)
  • Too many IDP’s leads to increased owner departures

10 to 12 Owners Max

  • 10 Team leagues are recommended to newer owners as they offer the best options in the free agent market
  • 12 team leagues are a little more challenging as the free agent pool is much smaller

 

Five RBs To Draft Ahead of Their ADP – 2014

Some players we like more than the consensus.

Andre Brown, Hou (ADP 14th Round)

  • Nice handcuff for Arian Foster, actually a MUST handcuff

Bishop Sankey, Ten (ADP 7th Round)

  • RB1 in Tennessee.
  • Top 20 RB

Toby Gerhart, Jac (ADP 8th Round)

  • Workhorse in Jacksonville
  • Top 20 RB

Ryan Mathews (ADP 5th Round)

  • Top 15 RB
  • Don’t reach.
  • 4th – early 5th round

Andre Ellington (ADP 5th Round)

  • Top 15 RB
  • Again, don’t reach.
  • 4th – early 5th round

 

Mathews or Ellington will make a nice RB2 if you choose only 1 RB in the first 3 to 4 rounds.  There will probably be better options early in the 4th round.  Mathews & Ellington will be great picks late 4th or 5th round.  Sankey & Gerhart should be sure fire targets.  Both represent the best late round RBs.